A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
