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Just two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

This is a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the victories have piled up.

According to Opta, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.